Preseason Rankings
Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#137
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.6#152
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#137
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#147
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 20.5% 12.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 1.3% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.3 12.7 13.6
.500 or above 79.5% 91.4% 75.0%
.500 or above in Conference 82.7% 89.7% 80.0%
Conference Champion 15.5% 22.0% 13.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.0%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.6%
First Round14.0% 20.1% 11.7%
Second Round2.2% 4.0% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois (Home) - 27.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 45 - 9
Quad 413 - 318 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 42   Illinois L 74-80 27%    
  Nov 13, 2019 77   @ San Diego St. L 66-74 22%    
  Nov 16, 2019 343   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 77-59 95%    
  Nov 19, 2019 279   Montana St. W 83-72 84%    
  Nov 22, 2019 199   Valparaiso W 70-66 64%    
  Nov 30, 2019 241   Purdue Fort Wayne W 83-74 78%    
  Dec 03, 2019 287   Mount St. Mary's W 77-65 84%    
  Dec 08, 2019 87   Liberty L 64-69 35%    
  Dec 12, 2019 114   Northern Iowa W 67-66 53%    
  Dec 17, 2019 92   @ New Mexico L 78-84 29%    
  Dec 21, 2019 255   Eastern Illinois W 78-68 79%    
  Jan 04, 2020 197   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 11, 2020 228   California Baptist W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 16, 2020 351   @ Chicago St. W 84-68 91%    
  Jan 18, 2020 234   @ UMKC W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 23, 2020 168   Seattle W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 25, 2020 236   Utah Valley W 77-68 76%    
  Jan 30, 2020 230   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 01, 2020 55   @ New Mexico St. L 66-77 18%    
  Feb 08, 2020 228   @ California Baptist W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 13, 2020 234   UMKC W 76-67 76%    
  Feb 15, 2020 351   Chicago St. W 87-65 96%    
  Feb 20, 2020 168   @ Seattle L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 22, 2020 236   @ Utah Valley W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 27, 2020 55   New Mexico St. L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 29, 2020 230   UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-69 76%    
  Mar 07, 2020 197   Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-65 71%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.4 4.9 3.0 0.7 15.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.9 7.2 9.0 5.9 1.4 27.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.6 5.7 1.5 0.1 19.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.5 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.3 1.2 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.0 0.7 0.1 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.0 7.2 9.8 12.1 14.0 13.8 12.5 10.5 6.3 3.0 0.7 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
15-1 100.0% 3.0    2.6 0.4
14-2 77.1% 4.9    3.3 1.6 0.0
13-3 42.5% 4.4    2.1 2.0 0.3
12-4 15.9% 2.0    0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0
11-5 3.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 15.5% 15.5 9.3 5.3 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.7% 69.8% 57.7% 12.1% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 28.6%
15-1 3.0% 52.4% 45.9% 6.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 12.1%
14-2 6.3% 38.2% 37.0% 1.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.9 1.9%
13-3 10.5% 25.8% 25.7% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.8 0.1%
12-4 12.5% 19.0% 18.9% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.0 10.1 0.0%
11-5 13.8% 13.9% 13.9% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 11.9
10-6 14.0% 9.5% 9.5% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 12.6
9-7 12.1% 5.6% 5.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 11.5
8-8 9.8% 4.1% 4.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9.4
7-9 7.2% 3.5% 3.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.0
6-10 5.0% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.9
5-11 2.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.9
4-12 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-13 0.6% 0.6
2-14 0.2% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.3% 13.9% 0.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.6 3.8 3.3 2.2 1.0 85.7 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.8 19.7 18.4 19.7 36.8 2.6 1.3 1.3